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MINNEAPOLIS — Economists from Deutsche Bank issued a report this week projecting a potential "mild recession" in the United States starting late 2023 into early 2024, arguing that monetary policy to fight inflation will shrink the economy.
Gross domestic product unexpectedly declined at a 1.4% annualized pace in the first quarter, marking an abrupt reversal for an economy coming off its best performance since 1984, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.
The negative growth rate missed even the subdued Dow Jones estimate of a 1% gain for the quarter. GDP measures the output of goods and services in the U.S. for the three-month period.
A plethora of factors conspired to weigh against growth during the first three months of 2022, which fell off a cliff following the 6.9% gain to close out last year.